Tiger Research Sees Bitcoin Targeting $190K on Institutional Wave and Liquidity Surge

Tiger Research has issued one of the most bullish near-term outlooks for bitcoin (BTC), setting a Q3 price target of $190,000 on the back of unprecedented liquidity, ETF demand, and access through U.S. retirement accounts.

The Asia-based research firm said its model starts with a “base price” of $135,000, before adding multipliers for fundamentals (+3.5%) and macro conditions (+35%). The adjustments push the forecast to $190,000, implying a 67% upside from this week’s average of around $113,000.

Key Drivers
The forecast rests on three primary factors:

• Liquidity: Global M2 money supply has surpassed $90 trillion.
• Institutional Demand: ETFs and corporate treasuries now hold more than 6% of bitcoin’s supply.
• Policy Shift: Trump’s executive order allowing 401(k) allocations to crypto, which Tiger says cements bitcoin’s role as a “core institutional holding.” A mere 1% allocation from the $8.9 trillion retirement pool would equate to nearly $90 billion in demand.

Evidence of accumulation is clear. ETFs collectively hold 1.3 million BTC, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) controls over 629,000 BTC valued at $71 billion. The company’s use of convertible bonds has created structural buying pressure, while blockchain data shows a move toward larger, institution-driven transactions instead of smaller retail flows.

Risks and Caution Signs
Despite the bullish thesis, Tiger flagged structural weaknesses. Daily transactions and active wallet counts remain below last year’s levels, signaling fading retail activity. The firm suggested new initiatives like BTCFi will be needed to drive broader on-chain engagement.

On-chain indicators also highlight caution:

• MVRV-Z is at 2.49, a level that has historically preceded corrections.
• ASOPR sits at 1.019, showing sellers are capturing modest profits.
• NUPL at 0.558 reflects healthy but not euphoric positioning.

Tiger concluded that while bitcoin’s market structure is institutionally stronger than ever, participation remains concentrated. The setup may offer room for significant upside, but profit-taking pressures could resurface if retail activity fails to return.