Bitcoin’s MVRV Signals Bearish Pressure for Short-Term Holders as Long-Term Investors Continue to Accumulate

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are signaling a growing level of stress among short-term holders, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio has fallen to 0.82, a level historically associated with significant market pressure and the potential for capitulation, according to Glassnode data.

The STH MVRV ratio compares the current market value of Bitcoin with the average purchase price of coins held by short-term holders. A ratio below 1.0 indicates that short-term holders are, on average, underwater and holding unrealized losses. At the current reading of 0.82, this suggests short-term holders are down by about 18%, a sign that many are likely facing substantial losses.

This metric closely mirrors previous MVRV cycle lows—such as 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022—both of which came before price reversals and the beginning of a new market trend.

Historically, when the MVRV ratio hits such low levels, weak hands tend to capitulate, selling their holdings, while more patient, long-term investors begin to accumulate. According to Glassnode, long-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for over 155 days—have increased their holdings by approximately 500,000 BTC since February.

Meanwhile, short-term holders have sold off over 300,000 BTC, driven by a combination of profit-taking and capitulation. The imbalance suggests that long-term holders are absorbing more Bitcoin than short-term holders are parting with, which could indicate the beginning of a market shift toward accumulation by more resilient investors.