Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has sharply scaled back his bullish Bitcoin targets, saying the market is facing a “cold breeze” rather than a full-blown “crypto winter.” In a research note published Tuesday, the bank’s global head of digital assets cut his year-end BTC forecast to $100,000 and pushed back his long-held $500,000 target from 2028 to 2030.

“Recent price action in bitcoin has been challenging, to say the least,” Kendrick wrote in the report, titled ‘Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze.’

A major factor behind the downgrade, he explained, is the steep collapse in valuations of bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Kendrick’s earlier bullish outlook assumed ongoing, sizable BTC accumulation by these firms. But with many now trading below the value of the bitcoin they hold, their ability to raise capital for further purchases has been severely constrained.

“We expect consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” Kendrick said.

With DATs sidelined, Kendrick argued that the bull case now relies almost entirely on continued ETF inflows. Reflecting that shift, he slashed his price projections across the board:

• 2025: Cut to $100,000 from $200,000
• 2026: Cut to $150,000 from $300,000
• 2027: Cut to $225,000 from $400,000
• 2028: Cut to $300,000 from $500,000

The long-anticipated $500,000 mark, he added, is now unlikely before 2030.

While the current environment has cooled sentiment, Kendrick noted that institutional adoption tends to move slowly, as investment committees and large allocators often require extended decision-making cycles. Over time, however, he believes those channels could fuel the next major wave of bitcoin demand.