Bitcoin Rally Could Accelerate to $200K as ETF Flows Shift, Says Standard Chartered

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged roughly 13% this week, hitting $124,951 on Friday, approaching a new all-time high near $124,500. Analysts at Standard Chartered see the potential for a rapid move toward $135,000, with longer-term prospects of $200,000 by year-end.

ETF Flows and Market Dynamics
In a Friday note, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, highlighted a potential rotation of ETF investors from gold to Bitcoin. While gold ETFs have recently outperformed, record inflows into spot BTC ETFs could provide a significant tailwind for the cryptocurrency. Of the $58 billion in total BTC ETF inflows, $23 billion has arrived in 2025 alone, including over $2.25 billion this week (excluding Friday). Kendrick projects another $20 billion could flow in before year-end, supporting his $200,000 BTC target.

Government Shutdown as a Catalyzing Factor
Kendrick also noted that ongoing U.S. government shutdown risks are influencing markets more than in previous episodes. Unlike the 2018–2019 shutdown, Bitcoin is now closely correlated with U.S. government risk, measured via Treasury term premiums. This relationship suggests that the current shutdown uncertainty is acting as a bullish driver for BTC.

Prediction market data from Polymarket indicates a 60% chance that the shutdown lasts 10–29 days, a timeframe Kendrick expects BTC to continue its upward trajectory.

Technical Outlook
With Friday’s surge bringing BTC close to previous record levels, a short-term target of $135,000 appears achievable. Combined with ETF inflows and macro risk factors, Bitcoin’s momentum could carry the largest cryptocurrency toward Kendrick’s year-end $200,000 forecast.