Jobs Data Surprises to the Upside as Bitcoin Holds Firm Amid Tariff-Driven Market Turmoil

The U.S. labor market posted a solid upside surprise in March, even as global financial markets reeled from escalating trade tensions sparked by fresh U.S. and Chinese tariffs.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 last month, well above the consensus forecast of 135,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. February’s figures were revised lower to 117,000 from 151,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%.

Bitcoin (BTC) was largely unchanged in the immediate aftermath of the report, trading around $82,600. While broader markets have seen heavy selling pressure, the cryptocurrency has so far maintained key support levels.

The positive jobs data added complexity to an already volatile macro backdrop. Markets had already been rattled by President Trump’s announcement of steep tariffs on Chinese goods Wednesday, followed by China’s retaliation Friday morning. The Nasdaq dropped 6% on Thursday, and S&P 500 futures pointed to a 3% decline before the opening bell.

Despite the strength in employment, investors continue to bet on Federal Reserve easing. The CME FedWatch Tool shows odds of a June rate cut rising to 60%, with 116 basis points of total cuts now priced in for 2025.

Gold, Treasuries, and bitcoin are being closely watched as potential safe havens. While gold remains just below its all-time high of $3,200/oz and bond yields fall, bitcoin is beginning to show signs of decoupling from equities — holding the $80,000 level on Thursday despite the tech-led stock selloff.

Next week’s U.S. inflation data will be critical in determining whether the Fed moves forward with its anticipated rate cuts and whether bitcoin’s recent stability is the start of a longer-term trend.