Toncoin (TON) has slumped over 7% in the past 24 hours, falling from $3.32 to just under the $3 threshold, after investor enthusiasm over a potential Telegram-xAI partnership was abruptly undercut by Elon Musk’s public denial.

The downturn continued a broader decline that began earlier in the week, when Telegram CEO Pavel Durov teased a forthcoming deal with Musk’s AI venture, xAI. That speculation briefly pushed TON to a $3.65 high before being reversed by Musk’s statement that no official agreement had been signed. TON is now down 17% from its peak, with sentiment turning sharply risk-off.

Markets reacted as if the deal had collapsed, unwinding expectations of a landmark integration that could have connected The Open Network to Telegram’s 700 million-strong user base. Despite this, Durov clarified Friday that the collaboration was “agreed in principle” and only pending formal approval.

Still, the uncertainty triggered heavy sell pressure on TON, though bulls are defending the psychological $3 level. The token remains a core part of Telegram’s crypto strategy, including ongoing implementation of TON-based payments within the messaging app—positioning it as one of the few crypto projects with mainstream exposure.

Meanwhile, Telegram secured $1.7 billion via convertible bonds this week, with $745 million earmarked for future growth and $955 million to retire existing debt—moves that could reinforce long-term development of the TON ecosystem.

Key Price Zones and Market Data

Technical data shows strong wallet concentration near $3.24, where over 740 million tokens are distributed across 1.21 million addresses—suggesting that any sustained move above that zone may face headwinds, according to analyst Ali Martinez.

During the drop, trading volume surged to over 10.6 million tokens in a single hour—three times the norm—before buyers stepped in to form a recovery above $3.08. A new resistance has formed around $3.22.

In the derivatives market, open interest in TON perpetual futures spiked 33% to $190 million—its highest since February—indicating traders are positioning for continued volatility, regardless of how the Telegram-xAI story unfolds.