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Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Are Booming — But Are Investors Looking at the Wrong Metric?
As companies rush to turn themselves into Bitcoin holding vehicles, a popular valuation tool — modified net asset value (mNAV) — may not be telling the full story.
That’s the warning from Greg Cipolaro, Head of Research at NYDIG, who argues in a new report that mNAV, while widely cited, is too simplistic for assessing the true worth of public firms with large Bitcoin treasuries.
Beyond mNAV: The Premium That Tells All
mNAV measures how a company’s market cap compares to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. While that can reveal how much investors are paying over BTC’s market value, it misses critical context — like debt, cash, or the company’s actual operating business.
Cipolaro instead champions a different lens: the equity premium to NAV. This metric looks at how much the stock trades above or below its net asset value (Bitcoin plus cash and enterprise value, minus liabilities). It offers a cleaner way to judge how the market values a company’s ability to raise capital and accumulate more BTC.
“This equity premium is what enables Bitcoin treasuries to function like BTC money printers,” Cipolaro explained.
The Surprising Standouts
According to NYDIG’s research, two unlikely names — Semler Scientific (SMLR) and Trump Media (DJT) — may be flying under the radar.
While both show mNAVs over 1.1, their equity premiums to NAV are negative: -10% for SMLR and -16% for DJT. That suggests the market isn’t fully pricing in their Bitcoin assets, potentially presenting an opportunity for investors looking for “cheap BTC per share” exposure.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), by comparison, continues to trade at a premium, reinforcing its role as the bellwether for Bitcoin balance sheet plays.
The Takeaway
Cipolaro’s core message? mNAV is just one piece of the puzzle. With more firms adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies, investors will need more nuanced tools to differentiate hype from value.
“A true comparison demands more than mNAV—it demands context,” he concluded.
As Bitcoin-integrated equities mature, so too must the ways we assess them. For now, equity premium to NAV may be the valuation metric to watch.
