Bitcoin’s Momentum Indicator Turns Positive, Bolstering $150K–$200K Rally Expectations

A widely followed momentum indicator has flipped bullish, reinforcing growing optimism among analysts that Bitcoin (BTC) could rally toward the $150,000 to $200,000 range.

The indicator, known as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, measures the gap between the MACD line and its signal line. The MACD line is derived by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA of Bitcoin’s price, while the signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line itself.

When the MACD histogram shifts from negative to positive, it signals a transition from downward to upward momentum—often seen as a strong buy cue by traders.

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s MACD has just crossed above zero, signaling renewed bullish momentum.

This move coincides with Bitcoin’s recent rebound off its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a pattern previously observed in mid-2024 and early 2023, both of which preceded substantial rallies.

For context, the MACD last flipped positive in October 2023, foreshadowing Bitcoin’s breakout above $70,000 in November and its all-time high later that December.

Over the last five years, the MACD has produced five positive flips, with only one false signal in March 2022 that briefly caught bulls off guard.

This fresh bullish indicator aligns with the current optimistic macroeconomic environment. Earlier this week, Standard Chartered predicted that rising institutional adoption and inflows could push Bitcoin’s price as high as $200,000.

Additionally, Bitfinex analysts told CoinDesk that Bitcoin is solidifying its role as a global macro reserve asset, projecting a price range of $150,000 to $180,000 over 2025 and 2026.