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U.S. Exceptionalism Powers Nasdaq Rally, With Implications for Bitcoin and the Dollar
The renewed narrative of U.S. exceptionalism could serve as a tailwind for bitcoin while also helping stabilize the U.S. dollar.
U.S. exceptionalism—the idea that America’s economy and markets operate on a fundamentally different level from other nations—appears alive and well, judging by recent equity market performance.
Since early April’s market dip, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has soared 31%, while the broader S&P 500 has gained 24%, according to data from TradingView. In comparison, major international indices like Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC, Japan’s Nikkei, and China’s Shanghai Composite have all trailed behind Wall Street’s impressive rebound.
On Thursday, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. Treasury securities has remained strong, despite persistent concerns over fiscal sustainability, as CoinDesk reported last month.
These figures challenge the widespread narrative that investors are pulling capital out of the U.S. due to fears around the national debt, President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade tensions, and his repeated criticisms of the Federal Reserve.
“Several key factors that underpinned U.S. exceptionalism remain fully intact and may even be strengthening,” wrote Hani Redha, portfolio manager and head of strategy and research for global multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, in a blog post last month.
Redha highlighted deregulation under the Trump administration as a significant driver behind America’s productivity supercycle—a phenomenon not mirrored elsewhere in the world.
Economic Data Reinforces U.S. Exceptionalism
Additional economic indicators also back the case for U.S. exceptionalism. One key measure is real per capita GDP growth, which tracks the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced per person.
“The U.S. massively outperforms the EU in terms of real per capita GDP growth. The reasons for that are deeply structural and haven’t changed one bit. U.S. exceptionalism—for growth at least—is here to stay,” said Robin Brooks, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, in a post on X.
Moreover, fresh U.S. jobs data released Thursday added yet another piece of evidence supporting the narrative of enduring American strength, as noted by Bruce J. Clark, head of rates at Informa Global Markets, on LinkedIn.
Implications for Bitcoin and the Dollar
The revival of U.S. exceptionalism in stock markets could bode well for bitcoin and the wider crypto space, given the historical tendency for BTC to move in tandem with U.S. equities.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, has already jumped 44% to reach $108,000, recovering strongly from early April lows near $75,000, according to CoinDesk data. With a crypto-friendly president in the White House, some argue that bitcoin itself might be considered part of America’s exceptionalism narrative.
At the same time, the resurgence of U.S. exceptionalism could provide support for the U.S. dollar.
“With today’s jobs data putting another stake in the ‘loss of American exceptionalism’ narrative, the temptation to get long dollars here for a counter-trend trade is big and growing,” Clark commented, also noting European Central Bank officials’ increasing concerns over the euro’s strength.
Earlier this week, the Financial Times quoted a senior ECB official suggesting the central bank might need to intervene if the euro appreciates too much, potentially pushing inflation below target levels. Meanwhile, in an interview with Bloomberg, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that an “overshooting” euro, particularly beyond the 1.20 level, could pose challenges.
