Prediction markets correctly doubted Microsoft’s potential embrace of bitcoin.

A mere 0.55% of Microsoft (MSFT) shareholders voted in favor of a proposal to allocate 1% of the company’s assets to bitcoin (BTC), according to a recent SEC filing.

The proposal, put forward by the National Center for Public Policy Research, argued that bitcoin could act as an effective hedge against inflation. However, Microsoft’s board opposed the motion, highlighting bitcoin’s price volatility and emphasizing the company’s preference for traditional, stable investments. Advocates for the proposal, including Michael Saylor, pointed to MicroStrategy’s successful bitcoin strategy and argued that Microsoft’s $200 billion in dividends and buybacks could be better utilized with BTC exposure.

Other shareholder motions, such as those addressing the risks of misinformation linked to artificial intelligence and the ethical concerns of weapons development, also failed to garner sufficient votes.

On platforms like Polymarket, traders had set a low probability—between 12% and 16%—for the bitcoin proposal’s approval, aligning closely with the eventual result.