Crypto markets turned cautious Tuesday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision, with the emphasis shifting from the rate outcome to forward guidance and tone.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly pushed above $76,000 overnight before retreating to around $74,000 during U.S. hours, still slightly higher over the past 24 hours.

Crypto-linked equities posted modest gains. Circle rose about 5%, while Bitdeer climbed 12%. In traditional markets, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5% and the S&P 500 gained 0.25%.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep benchmark rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Instead, investors are focused on signals from Chair Jerome Powell and the broader policy outlook.

A key variable is the recent surge in oil prices, driven in part by the ongoing conflict involving Iran, and its potential impact on inflation expectations.

Bitfinex analysts said the central question is whether policymakers continue to point to rate cuts in 2026 or shift toward a more restrictive stance. A hawkish pivot could weigh on risk assets, including crypto, by strengthening the dollar.

Powell’s interpretation of higher oil prices will also be critical. If viewed as a temporary supply shock, markets may remain supported. But a more persistent, stagflationary outlook could limit the Fed’s room to ease and pressure asset prices.

According to Bitfinex, the most negative scenario for markets would be a combination of stronger-than-expected PPI inflation data followed by hawkish commentary from Powell — a mix that could stall the recent crypto rally.