U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to command roughly $85 billion in assets despite bitcoin’s steep decline, but analysts warn that the headline stability may not equate to broad-based bullish conviction.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $126,000 in early October before retreating to around $60,000, effectively halving in value. Yet the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs trading in the U.S. have collectively recorded just $8.5 billion in net outflows. Even after the correction, the funds still manage about $85 billion — representing more than 6% of bitcoin’s circulating supply.

While some investors interpret the relatively muted redemptions as a sign of resilience, others argue that ETF ownership dynamics tell a more nuanced story.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said ETF holdings are heavily concentrated among market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds that typically maintain hedged, market-neutral positions rather than outright directional bets.

Late-2025 13F filings indicate that between 55% and 75% of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which oversees approximately $61 billion, is owned by such participants. These firms generally offset their ETF exposure with positions in related instruments, meaning they are not necessarily expressing a strong bullish outlook on bitcoin’s price.

Market makers provide liquidity by continuously quoting buy and sell prices and earning the bid-ask spread, while seeking to minimize exposure to price swings. Arbitrage hedge funds exploit price differences between markets — for example, between spot ETFs and futures — by taking opposing positions. As a result, their activity tends to be neutral in terms of directional market impact.

Thielen added that market makers reduced their ETF exposure by an estimated $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter, when bitcoin was trading near $88,000, reflecting softer speculative demand and lower arbitrage inventory needs.

In short, although ETF assets remain substantial through the downturn, much of that endurance may reflect structural trading strategies rather than steadfast long-term confidence in bitcoin’s price trajectory.