Polymarket’s Top Trader Bets on 50bps Fed Rate Cut Amid Market Expectations
September 10, 2025

A leading trader on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, known as JustWakingUp, has wagered that the Federal Reserve will implement a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut next week, defying the broader market’s consensus.

JustWakingUp, the platform’s most prolific trader with nearly $400 million in total trading volume and over $2 million in profits, has placed a $15,000 bet that rates will fall to 3.75%. The position has already gained 3%, with potential winnings of roughly $226,000 if the Fed delivers the larger-than-expected cut.

Most market participants, however, anticipate a 25 bps reduction, with the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 91% probability to that outcome. Still, the odds of a 50 bps cut have climbed to nearly 10% following Friday’s weaker-than-expected August jobs report, which showed 911,000 fewer jobs added over the year ending March 2025—the largest annual downward revision on record.

Financial institutions including BlackRock and Standard Chartered have also advocated for a 50 bps cut.

Traders are now turning attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data, with the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Thursday. Softer-than-expected readings could bolster expectations for a larger Fed cut, potentially boosting both bitcoin and stock markets.