Bitwise CIO: Solana Could Mirror Bitcoin’s Early Breakout as ETF Decisions Loom

Solana’s latest rally may be just the beginning, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who sees striking parallels to the early days of Bitcoin’s breakout.

The token has gained 24% over the past month, but Hougan argues the real momentum could come in the months ahead as a mix of exchange-traded product (ETP) filings, corporate treasury purchases, and a landmark technical upgrade converge.

“For the last 18 months, the formula for outsized crypto returns has been obvious: combine ETP inflows with aggressive treasury allocations and the results speak for themselves,” Hougan wrote. He noted that this recipe drove Bitcoin from $40,000 to its current levels and helped Ethereum triple in value — and now the same conditions are forming around Solana.

Seven asset managers — including Bitwise, Grayscale, Fidelity, and VanEck — have filed to launch spot Solana ETPs, with the SEC expected to decide by October 10. Approval could make SOL accessible to investors in the same way as traditional equities.

Meanwhile, corporate interest is rising. Over the weekend, microcap Forward Industries (FORD) announced it had raised $1.65 billion from Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital to buy and stake SOL, turning Solana into a yield-bearing balance sheet asset. The effort is being led by Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani, whom Hougan likened to Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor in terms of visibility and narrative power.

At the core of Solana’s pitch is speed. A forthcoming upgrade will reduce transaction finality from 12 seconds to just 150 milliseconds while keeping fees under one cent. That efficiency makes it uniquely positioned for high-volume use cases like tokenized assets and stablecoins, Hougan argued.

Critics highlight Solana’s greater centralization risks compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin, but Hougan pointed to its accelerating adoption: third in stablecoin liquidity, fourth in tokenized assets, and a 140% increase in asset volumes this year.

Scale is another advantage. With a $116 billion market cap — versus $2.2 trillion for Bitcoin and $519 billion for Ethereum — Solana remains small enough for inflows to have outsized impact. Hougan noted that Forward’s $1.65 billion allocation could move SOL the way a $33 billion buy would move BTC.

“Keep your eye on Solana,” Hougan concluded.