Bitcoin’s recent surge to record highs has left short-term holder (STH) whales sitting on the largest unrealized profits of the cycle — roughly $10.1 billion, according to CryptoQuant data.

These STH whales, defined as entities holding more than 1,000 BTC acquired within the past five months, are typically the first to sell when volatility spikes. Just weeks ago, the same cohort was underwater following late-September’s dip. Now, bolstered by ETF inflows, a softer U.S. dollar, and the backdrop of a government shutdown, their paper gains have ballooned into the tens of billions.

The risk is clear: $10 billion in unrealized profits is exactly the kind of setup that tempts holders to cash out. Exchange inflow data already shows $5.7 billion moving from STH wallets into exchanges earlier this week, signaling that profit-taking is not a theoretical threat but an active force in the market.

Looking at the broader cycle, massive hand-offs between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term participants have been underway. Analytics tool Checkonchain reports that 3.45 million BTC have shifted from LTH wallets to STHs since this cycle began — a transfer volume rivaling the 2016–17 wave, albeit at prices roughly 100 times higher.

Whether this redistribution caps momentum or fuels further trading depends on demand levels in the coming weeks. For now, the market appears robust enough to absorb some profit-taking. However, if STH whales decide to liquidate en masse, the $10.1 billion in unrealized gains could quickly turn into realized selling pressure, potentially testing bitcoin’s near-term highs.