Polymarket bettors are wagering that the U.S. government will remain shut beyond October 15, but they do not expect the shutdown to surpass the record set during the first Trump administration in 2018–2019.

Currently, the market assigns a 72% probability that the government will reopen on or after October 15, based on $1.4 million in trading volume within a $4 million contract covering that date range.

Another Polymarket contract, focusing on the overall length of the shutdown, indicates a 67% chance it will last between 10 and 29 days. The likelihood of it extending beyond a month—which would break the historical record—is only 27%.

Some analysts are noting that the ongoing shutdown may have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent rally, which saw the cryptocurrency surpass $125,000.

Meanwhile, Congress remains at an impasse, with recent funding resolutions failing to secure the votes necessary to reopen the government.