Short-term Bitcoin holders have added roughly 450,000 BTC since July, bringing their total holdings to around 2.6 million BTC, according to Glassnode data. These investors, defined as those who purchased bitcoin within the past 155 days, remain below prior peaks, reflecting muted market sentiment.

This marks the third notable cycle of rising short-term holder (STH) activity since early 2024—a pattern that has historically coincided with local bitcoin price tops. The first surge occurred in April 2024, shortly after bitcoin’s March all-time high of $73,000. The second followed in January 2025, aligning with the $110,000 all-time high, and the latest uptick has trailed the recent record of $126,000.

Each successive cycle shows a shrinking STH cohort, indicating that overall speculative enthusiasm is gradually fading. As a share of total circulating supply, STH holdings have fallen from 22% to 20%, now hovering around 18%. Earlier in Q1 2025, STHs held as much as 2.8 million BTC, but their supply dropped to roughly 2.1 million BTC as bitcoin corrected to $76,000, highlighting their role in previous selling pressure.

In contrast, long-term holders (LTHs) reduced their positions over the summer, distributing approximately 250,000 BTC since July as bitcoin consolidated. LTHs now hold about 14.5 million BTC.

Looking ahead, as Bitcoin enters its historically strongest quarter, STH supply is expected to continue rising, potentially surpassing 3 million BTC and marking new cycle highs.