Bitcoin Faces Pressure as OBV Signals Potential Slide Below $100K

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained above $100,000 for four straight months, forming what many analysts view as a stable base for a potential upward move. Yet, a key volume-based indicator suggests underlying weakness that could foreshadow a sell-off.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV)—dubbed the “grand daddy” of volume indicators by Charles D. Kirkpatrick II and Julie R. Dahlquist—is signaling caution. OBV tracks cumulative trading volume, adding volume on days the price rises and subtracting when it falls, helping confirm trends and flag early warning signals for potential breakouts or breakdowns.

“When prices are in a trading range and OBV breaks its own support or resistance, it often indicates the direction of the next breakout,” Kirkpatrick II and Dahlquist note. BTC’s OBV has now dropped below its recent range, reaching levels not seen since April 24, when BTC traded near $94,000. This decline hints at weakening demand despite BTC holding above $100K.

Additional momentum indicators reinforce this bearish outlook. The MACD histogram on the weekly chart is forming deeper bars below zero, indicating strengthening downside momentum.

Key levels to watch:

• Support: Short-term support sits near $107,300, marked by intraday lows from late August. A breach could shift attention to the June 22 low around $99,225.
• Resistance: The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) remains the hurdle for bulls to regain control.

Traders will be watching these levels closely as volume and momentum indicators suggest that a dip below $100K may be on the horizon, despite BTC’s recent stability.