Bitcoin’s correction could extend into late 2026 in dollar terms, but its valuation against gold suggests the market may be closer to a turning point, according to research from Mercado Bitcoin.

Rony Szuster, the exchange’s head of research, said historical bitcoin bear markets have typically lasted 12 to 13 months. The cryptocurrency peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 when measured in U.S. dollars. If the current cycle follows prior patterns, the downturn may continue toward the end of 2026, he wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.

However, bitcoin’s performance relative to gold tells a different story. The BTC-gold ratio reached its high in January 2025. Applying the same historical timeframe would imply a potential bottom around February 2026, with a possible recovery beginning shortly thereafter.

The divergence reflects shifting macroeconomic dynamics. Since the start of President Donald Trump’s new term, markets have navigated renewed trade tariffs, domestic political friction in the U.S., and escalating geopolitical tensions involving China and Iran, the latter of which have evolved into active conflict.

As uncertainty intensified — reflected in a sharp rise in the World Uncertainty Index — investors have sought safety in gold. The precious metal has surged more than 80% over the past year to roughly $5,280. As capital rotated into bullion, bitcoin weakened against gold more rapidly than it did against the dollar.

Exchange-traded fund flows have added to the pressure. Since November, approximately $7.8 billion has been withdrawn from spot bitcoin ETFs, accounting for about 12% of the $61.6 billion held in those products, underscoring defensive positioning among shorter-term investors.

Still, not all market participants are retreating. The report highlights that larger investors appear to be accumulating during the downturn. In mid-February, Abu Dhabi-based firms including Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments increased their exposure to spot bitcoin ETFs.

Given the mixed signals, Szuster recommends a measured accumulation strategy, such as dollar-cost averaging, to manage volatility and reduce the risk of mistiming the market.

“Historically, buying during periods of fear has proven more effective than buying during euphoria,” he wrote. “That doesn’t confirm the bottom is already in, but statistically, we are operating in the range where attractive long-term entry prices are typically formed.”