Despite its traditionally bearish reputation, every death cross in the current cycle has coincided with a major local bottom.

Bitcoin is once again approaching a potential death cross, with the 50-day moving average at $110,669 now on the verge of dipping below the 200-day moving average at $110,459. While this crossover is widely viewed as a bearish signal—indicating weakening short-term momentum relative to the longer trend—it has repeatedly served as a contrarian bullish indicator throughout this cycle.

BTC is down roughly 25% from its October all-time high of about $126,000, with the correction now stretching into its 41st day. If the death cross occurs, it would be the fourth such signal since the cycle began in 2023. Notably, each previous death cross aligned with a major cyclical low.

• September 2023: BTC bottomed near $25,000
• August 2024: During the yen carry trade unwind, bitcoin held support around $49,000
• April 2025: Amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC slid below $75,000 before rebounding

In each case, bitcoin found its low just before the moving-average crossover occurred. With BTC now having dropped to $94,000, traders are watching closely to see if the pattern repeats.

Compared with the April 2025 drawdown—when bitcoin plunged more than 30% and spent nearly 80 days trending lower—the current pullback has been milder so far. At 25% over 41 days, the present correction is shorter and less severe, suggesting the possibility of additional downside if past cycles are a guide.

Another factor shaping sentiment is the recent end of the U.S. government shutdown on Nov. 12. Historical precedent adds a potential wrinkle: following the 2019 shutdown, bitcoin fell more than 9% within five days of the government reopening and didn’t stabilize until roughly two weeks later.

This time, BTC has already declined about 10% since the shutdown ended—raising the question of whether a similar post-reopening pattern is developing again.