Bitcoin Confronts $13.3B in Monthly Options Expiry With BTC Holding Far Below Max-Pain Levels

Bitcoin is heading into Friday’s monthly options expiry under renewed pressure after a steep correction that dragged the asset 35% lower to $81,000 before a modest rebound toward $87,000. The pullback has shifted market attention back to options positioning, where traders have taken on more defensive stances.

Data from Deribit shows 153,778 BTC in options set to expire, consisting of 92,692 BTC in call open interest and 61,086 BTC in put open interest—a combined notional value of roughly $13.3 billion. The put/call ratio of 0.66 indicates call exposure still outweighs puts, but the rise in downside hedging reflects growing caution.

Calls represent bullish bets granting the right to buy BTC at a specific strike, while puts provide the right to sell and are commonly used as protection during market downturns.

The max-pain level sits at $102,000, about 17% above spot, highlighting just how far BTC has slipped from the price at which option sellers would face the smallest aggregate losses. Approximately $3.4 billion worth of contracts are currently in the money—around 26% of total exposure—while $10 billion, or 74%, sits out of the money, underscoring how aggressively traders positioned for moves beyond the current price range.

Open interest is heaviest at the $80,000 strike, forming the largest bearish cluster. Meanwhile, call positions are concentrated at higher strikes, particularly above $120,000, though these levels remain well out of reach with BTC trading significantly lower.

With sentiment still fragile and firmly in fear territory, and with large out-of-the-money positions dominating the board, volatility may remain elevated into Friday’s expiry as market makers adjust hedges around key strike levels.

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