Bitcoin may be acting as if a recession is imminent, even though macroeconomic indicators suggest otherwise.

André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, noted in a Friday X post that bitcoin is currently pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Using macro survey data from sources including Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch charted the divergence between global growth expectations and the signals embedded in bitcoin’s price.

The chart highlights a sharp split: the black line representing bitcoin’s implied growth outlook has plunged below -1 standard deviation, signaling extreme pessimism, while survey-based macro indicators remain near neutral. Dragosch compared the setup to previous dislocations in March 2020 and November 2022, both of which preceded outsized bitcoin rallies.

“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch wrote, describing the current risk-reward setup as asymmetric. “You’re not even remotely bullish enough,” he added, noting that a recovery could resemble the sixfold rally seen after the March 2020 COVID shock.

Sentiment remains subdued. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index held at 20 (“Fear”) on Saturday, slightly above its year-to-date low of 10 recorded on Nov. 22. For context, the index was at 39 a month ago and reached 84 (“Extreme Greed”) in late November 2024.

Bitcoin traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Year-to-date, the cryptocurrency is down 3% and 28% below its all-time high of $126,080 hit on Oct. 6.

Meanwhile, macro expectations may be shifting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders now assign an 86.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting, bringing the benchmark range to 3.5%–3.75%.