VanEck’s Matthew Sigel says that MARA Holdings (MARA) may appear inexpensive, but its valuation looks elevated once its leverage and capital structure are considered.

Both Strategy (MSTR) and MARA, the two largest publicly traded bitcoin holders, have dropped roughly 40% over the past six weeks. While CoinDesk Research has focused on MSTR’s correction, MARA—down 55% year over year—has also attracted attention from investors who see potential value at current levels.

Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, challenges the notion that MARA is cheap. The company’s $3.3 billion in convertible debt relative to its $4.9 billion in bitcoin holdings leaves only about $1.6 billion of net bitcoin value, before accounting for other operational liabilities. With an equity market cap of $4.7 billion, Sigel argues that MARA is trading at a premium to its bitcoin holdings, not at a discount.

Short interest at MARA currently sits at 27%, but after adjusting for delta hedging tied to convertible notes, Sigel estimates true short interest drops to around 15%, a 44% reduction. By contrast, MSTR has over $8 billion in convertible debt versus a $53 billion market cap, and its adjusted short interest falls by only 31%, or roughly 9 million shares. Sigel characterizes MARA’s short interest as structural, while MSTR’s is more fundamentals-driven.

Sigel also notes that over half of MARA’s equity volatility stems from its capital structure and financing dynamics rather than bitcoin price movements. He concludes that MSTR provides cleaner bitcoin exposure, whereas MARA’s mining equity performance is heavily influenced by its complex and leveraged capital structure.