Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that bitcoin’s (BTC $87,454.37) signature parabolic growth curve has fractured, potentially setting the stage for a steep decline to $25,000.

Brandt’s analysis focuses on the pattern of exponential decay in bitcoin’s historical bull cycles. Historically, BTC rallies for 12–18 months following each halving before entering a bear market, typically seeing 70% to 80% pullbacks from record highs.

However, the magnitude of each cycle’s gains has steadily diminished. Following the first halving in November 2012, bitcoin surged roughly 100-fold to $1,240 by December 2013. The 2016 halving produced a 74-fold increase, and the 2020 halving generated an eight-fold rise.

The current post-halving cycle, which began after the April 2024 halving, saw bitcoin double to a record high of $126,000 by October. Since then, prices have retraced to just under $90,000, slicing through the parabolic curve that has historically marked bitcoin’s most dramatic uptrends.

“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” Brandt noted on X.

Brandt illustrates this on a log-scale chart dating back to 2010, highlighting four steepening pink arcs, each representing the rapid, vertical climbs of previous cycles. Parabolic moves, he emphasizes, don’t bend gently—they accelerate sharply, mirroring bitcoin’s history of explosive gains.

Crucially, breaches below these arcs have historically signaled the end of bull runs. Bitcoin’s recent pullback from October highs has pierced the fourth arc, raising concerns that a deeper correction could be underway.