Citigroup outlined a 12-month outlook for bitcoin, projecting a “base case” price target of $143,000—roughly 62% above current levels of around $88,000—driven by renewed ETF inflows and continued strength in traditional equity markets.

“Bitcoin is likely to trade in the $80,000–$90,000 range into the new year, supported by increased adoption of digital assets and potential U.S. digital-asset legislation in the second quarter,” Citi analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo said in a joint report. The team identified $70,000 as key support, noting it roughly corresponds to bitcoin’s price ahead of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.

The base case of $143,000 is predicated on renewed ETF demand and favorable equity market forecasts. Regulatory catalysts, particularly the anticipated passage and signing of the Clarity Act (already passed in the House), are expected to drive further adoption and fund flows.

Citi also outlined a bear scenario, with a 12-month target of $78,500—more than 10% below current levels—should a global recession weigh on the market. Conversely, the bull case sees bitcoin climbing to $189,000, more than doubling from current prices, fueled by strong end-investor demand.

Overall, the report underscores that while bitcoin’s path remains volatile, strategic catalysts such as regulation, ETF inflows, and equity market performance could create significant upside over the next year.