Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Ratio Suggests Late-November Dip May Have Marked a Bottom

Extreme readings in the ratio of short-term holder supply in profit versus short-term holder supply in loss have historically coincided with the end of Bitcoin bear markets.

During Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to nearly $80,000 in late November, the ratio fell to 0.013. According to Glassnode data, each prior instance of this level — in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 — marked either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low.

Glassnode defines short-term holders as those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. At the November low, the seven-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fell to around 30,000 BTC, while supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest since the FTX collapse in 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.

Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin has climbed to roughly $94,000, a gain of over 7%. During this rebound, short-term holder supply in loss dropped to 1.9 million BTC, while supply in profit rose to 850,000 BTC, yielding a ratio of about 0.45.

Historically, when this ratio nears 1, it often continues rising, signaling sustained upside in Bitcoin prices. With the current ratio below 0.5, the data suggests ample room for further expansion before equilibrium is reached. Market tops, by contrast, have typically appeared only when the ratio approaches 100.