Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Sees Bitcoin Trading Sideways Before $6.5 Million Long-Term Target

After a volatile 2025, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways in the first half of 2026, while institutional interest rises and central banks begin to take notice.

Sideways Trading Ahead
Hougan predicts bitcoin will remain between $75,000 and $100,000 early this year. “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, citing options-market positioning. He expects a more decisive breakout later in the year as regulatory clarity improves and macroeconomic risks are absorbed.

Precious Metals and Bitcoin’s Appeal
Gold’s recent rally reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and asset seizure risk, Hougan noted, while silver resembles a late-stage momentum trade, akin to speculative altcoins. Over time, he expects these dynamics to channel demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.

Central Banks Are Watching
Bitwise has engaged with central banks across multiple regions. Most questions focus on bitcoin’s security and risk profile rather than implementation. Hougan sees central banks eventually holding bitcoin—potentially more than gold—but adoption is likely 10 to 20 years away.

The $6.5 Million Bitcoin Forecast
Hougan reiterated his long-term view that bitcoin could reach $6.5 million per coin over the next two decades, assuming continued global debt growth, money printing, and currency debasement. “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” he said, “we get there.”

Institutional Adoption and Volatility
Declining volatility is critical for institutions. Hougan noted bitcoin is now less volatile than stocks like Nvidia and expects volatility to keep falling while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.

Looking Ahead
Regulatory clarity could accelerate the next bull phase, but isn’t necessary for long-term growth. ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization are expected to keep expanding. “The fundamentals are really strong,” Hougan said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”