In the latest Ethereum update, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argues that ETH’s next major move will be driven not by retail speculation, but by institutional capital that is already active and building on the network.

In Bitmine’s July Chairman’s letter, Lee highlighted BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, JPMorgan’s MONY platform, and Robinhood Chain as clear evidence that Wall Street has shifted from watching crypto to actively developing on Ethereum’s infrastructure. ETH is currently trading near $1,880, roughly 60% below its 2025 peak around $5,000.

Lee believes this gap reflects a transition in market structure rather than a hard cap on price. Earlier cycles driven by ICOs, NFTs, ETFs, and stablecoins have matured, and a new phase is emerging—one led by institutions with longer time horizons and deeper capital pools.

Institutional Build Accelerates

Lee’s thesis is supported by major financial players. BlackRock’s BUIDL, a tokenized U.S. Treasury fund, has grown to about $2.6 billion and earned a top money-market rating from Moody’s.

JPMorgan’s MONY extends the bank’s blockchain push that began with Onyx in 2020, adding another institutional-grade product within Ethereum’s ecosystem.

Developer activity further strengthens the case. Data from Electric Capital shows nearly 6,000 developers working on the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), keeping Ethereum ranked first for new builder activity—an important signal for institutions assessing long-term platform strength.

Lee contrasts this continued institutional expansion with the 2022 bear market, noting that infrastructure growth has persisted even as ETH prices declined sharply. This disconnect between strong on-chain development and weaker price action sits at the core of his thesis.

Robinhood Chain and ETH Utility

Robinhood Chain, launched July 1 on Arbitrum, adds another dimension to the story. Within two weeks, it ranked third in daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volume at roughly $811 million, briefly overtaking Ethereum, according to DefiLlama. Ethereum has since regained the top spot, while total Robinhood Chain volume has surpassed $1 billion.

Lee points to its use of ETH for settlement and fees as a meaningful real-world use case.

However, critics argue that much of the activity is driven by meme coin trading rather than institutional flows. Additionally, because the chain runs on Arbitrum, it contributes minimal fees back to Ethereum’s base layer, limiting its direct impact on ETH demand.

Amazon Comparison and Market Debate

Lee compares Ethereum’s current stage to Amazon’s early years, when the stock traded at low levels for an extended period before surging as its total market opportunity expanded.

At the same time, he acknowledges the bearish argument. ETH has failed twice to break above $5,000, leading some analysts to suggest that level could act as a ceiling in the current cycle.

There is also a notable conflict of interest. Bitmine’s latest disclosure shows holdings of 5.77 million ETH, or about 4.8% of the total supply. As a major holder, Lee stands to benefit significantly if institutional adoption drives prices higher.

While this does not invalidate his thesis, it adds important context to his outlook.

Outlook

The institutional developments Lee highlights—BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, JPMorgan’s MONY platform, and Robinhood Chain’s early traction—are all based on verifiable data.

The key question is whether these initiatives can translate into sustained demand in the secondary market. For ETH to climb from $1,880 back toward $5,000 and beyond, institutional participation must evolve from initial product launches into consistent capital inflows—something that has yet to be demonstrated at scale.