Bitcoin Moves Up as Oil Rallies and Equities Turn Lower

Bitcoin moved higher during European trading hours, diverging from the broader market downturn as oil prices surged and geopolitical tensions intensified.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency gained roughly 2.8% since midnight UTC, recovering after global markets initially dropped when futures trading began earlier in the session.

Equity markets, meanwhile, continued to slide. Futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 both declined more than 1.5% as oil prices jumped to as high as $115 per barrel, the highest level since June 2022. Precious metals also weakened, with gold falling 1.6% and silver dropping 1.1%, undercutting their usual safe-haven appeal as investors favored the U.S. dollar.

Despite turmoil across traditional markets, sentiment toward bitcoin appears to be improving. The cryptocurrency has remained relatively resilient amid the conflict involving Iran and supply disruptions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to crypto trading firm QCP Capital, bitcoin’s real-world utility may be becoming more apparent in the current macro environment.

“While BTC hasn’t fully secured its reputation as digital gold, its role as a digital escape mechanism is becoming increasingly relevant, particularly in Gulf countries facing currency volatility and political uncertainty,” the firm said in a note published Monday.

Derivatives positioning

Volatility across markets triggered a wave of liquidations in crypto derivatives. Exchanges have liquidated nearly $400 million worth of crypto futures positions over the past 24 hours. Traders betting against oil suffered the largest losses as crude prices surged to $115 per barrel.

Open interest in bitcoin futures remains close to weekly lows at roughly 650,000 BTC, indicating that derivatives traders have not fully joined the current rally. Meanwhile, open interest in Ether futures increased to about 13 million tokens.

Open interest in XRP climbed to 1.72 billion tokens, the highest level since Feb. 24. A modest increase was also recorded in Solana futures open interest, pointing to fresh capital entering those markets.

In contrast, open interest in several other assets—including PAX Gold, Avalanche, and Litecoin—declined over the past day, suggesting investors are trimming exposure during the price rebound.

Volatility expectations in crypto markets remain relatively steady. Thirty-day implied volatility indexes for bitcoin and ether have shown little change, indicating a calm derivatives environment despite sharp swings in oil and Asian equity markets.

On the derivatives platform Deribit, put options for bitcoin and ether continue to trade at a premium to calls, reflecting ongoing demand for downside protection. However, the premium remains largely unchanged from last week, indicating that the oil price surge has not significantly increased hedging demand.

Bitcoin’s implied volatility curve also remains in backwardation, meaning traders expect greater volatility in the near term than further out—a pattern consistent with the uncertainty surrounding the evolving geopolitical situation.

Token market activity

Altcoins broadly gained overnight. Privacy-oriented cryptocurrencies such as Dash, Monero, and Zcash posted gains ranging from roughly 3.8% to 5.2%.

Decentralized finance tokens also showed strong performance. Ether.fi and Morpho both outperformed bitcoin and ether during the same period.

Momentum across the broader altcoin market appears to be improving. The “Altcoin Season” indicator tracked by CoinMarketCap now stands at 36 out of 100, well above February’s low of 22.

Among sector benchmarks, the CoinDesk Computing Select Index—which includes assets such as Chainlink and Bittensor—was the best performer over the past 24 hours, rising 2.7%. It was followed by the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index, which gained 0.92% since Sunday morning.

On the downside, the institutional-focused token Canton Network Token declined 3.4% over the past day. Meanwhile, Worldcoin—a project linked to Sam Altman—fell roughly 2% during the same period.

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