Bitcoin is under pressure from a combination of macro uncertainty, with oil-driven inflation, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and shifting AI demand dynamics all weighing on sentiment, according to market maker Enflux.

The cryptocurrency fell about 3% in Asian trading, holding near $77,000 as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of a data-heavy week. The move reflects hesitation rather than a decisive shift in broader market direction.

In a note to CoinDesk, Singapore-based Enflux said traders are reluctant to bid bitcoin higher ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, followed by key releases including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index. These figures are expected to shape expectations for any rate cuts later this year.

Oil remains the central inflation concern. With Brent crude still above $100, the inflation outlook remains elevated, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to signal a more dovish stance in the near term.

Enflux added that markets are currently pricing two competing narratives: geopolitical tensions may eventually ease, but not quickly enough to affect immediate policy decisions. As a result, expectations for a June rate cut have largely been removed, leaving risk assets in a more cautious environment.

Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim key technical levels in this setting. It is trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer strength. A move above it would likely require clearer evidence that inflation pressures tied to oil are easing.

Until then, Enflux expects bitcoin to remain range-bound into upcoming macro releases, with larger moves more likely driven by data surprises than the Fed decision itself.

Looking further out, developments in the artificial intelligence sector are adding another layer of uncertainty. Reports suggesting weaker-than-expected revenue at OpenAI have raised questions about whether AI demand growth is slowing.

This matters for bitcoin because listed mining companies have been issuing debt and selling portions of their bitcoin holdings to finance a shift into AI data center infrastructure, which is seen as a higher-margin business than traditional mining.

If AI demand weakens, it could eventually reduce this miner-driven selling pressure by slowing expansion plans. However, any impact on supply dynamics would likely take time to appear.

In the near term, softer sentiment in tech and semiconductor markets could spill over into crypto, while any relief from reduced miner selling would likely emerge more gradually.

Overall, Enflux says bitcoin remains caught between competing macro forces, with inflation, interest rates, and AI uncertainty keeping the market locked in a narrow, wait-and-see range.