A widely followed momentum indicator that has consistently foreshadowed bitcoin selloffs in recent months has turned negative again, raising fresh concerns for the market outlook.

Bitcoin is once more flashing a caution signal as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram dips below zero for the third time since its October high—pointing to a renewed loss of bullish momentum.

What the MACD is signaling

The MACD is constructed using two key moving averages. The MACD line reflects the difference between the 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), offering insight into momentum trends.

The signal line, a nine-day EMA of the MACD line, helps smooth out short-term fluctuations.

The histogram—tracking the gap between these two lines—is the most critical component. When it moves above zero, it indicates bullish momentum; when it drops below zero, it signals bearish momentum. The slope of the histogram reflects the strength of the move.

Because it filters out market noise, the MACD is widely used to identify meaningful trend shifts. At present, it is pointing toward weakening momentum.

A pattern of bearish signals

Since bitcoin’s rally to above $126,000 in October, the MACD has shown a strong track record of identifying major downturns.

In early November, when the histogram first turned negative, bitcoin’s consolidation above $100,000 quickly broke down, leading to a drop from around $106,000 to $80,000.

A brief recovery followed as the indicator turned positive, but the rebound lacked strength. By Jan. 20, with bitcoin near $90,000, the MACD flipped bearish again—preceding another sharp fall to nearly $60,000 by early February. The subsequent bounce stalled near $75,000.

So far, bullish signals have resulted in short-lived rallies, while bearish crossovers have consistently been followed by deeper declines—suggesting sellers remain in control.

Another warning for bulls

The MACD histogram has now slipped back into negative territory, reviving the same bearish setup seen ahead of previous selloffs.

While no indicator guarantees future outcomes, the MACD’s recent consistency makes this development difficult to ignore. Despite bitcoin’s relative resilience during the Iran war, the latest signal suggests that downside risks may once again be building.