Bitcoin is beginning to show signs of renewed outperformance against gold, with the BTC-to-gold ratio bouncing back toward 16 ounces after a sharp drawdown earlier in the cycle.

With March approaching its close, bitcoin is barely holding onto monthly gains, up around 2% and trading above $68,000. Still, the risk of a historic losing streak remains. A late-month drop would mark six straight months of losses—matching the longest such stretch recorded between August 2018 and January 2019.

Critical support holds firm

The 200-week moving average (200WMA) continues to act as a key technical level. This long-term indicator, which averages prices over 200 weeks, has historically served as strong support during bear markets.

In the current cycle, the 200WMA sits near $59,000. Bitcoin briefly tested this zone in early February, falling to around $60,000, but has since held above it for nearly two months—suggesting the level remains a solid base. The 2022 bear market remains the only instance where BTC traded below the 200WMA for an extended period.

Momentum shifts versus gold

Beyond its USD price, bitcoin is also starting to gain ground against Gold. The BTC-to-gold ratio is on pace to post its first monthly gain in eight months, currently hovering near 16 ounces.

Gold is trading around $4,200 after recently sliding toward $4,000, reflecting a roughly 5% daily decline. The metal has now dropped more than 25% from its January all-time high, erasing an estimated $7.5 trillion in market value.

Historically, each cycle has produced smaller peak-to-trough declines in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio. In this cycle, BTC has fallen roughly 71% against gold from its December 2024 peak. These drawdowns have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting the current phase may be nearing exhaustion.

Broader trend remains intact?

If bitcoin can continue to hold above its 200-week moving average while strengthening relative to gold, it would support the view that the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility.