The brief optimism surrounding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is already fading, with signs of strain emerging less than 48 hours after the agreement was announced.

Iran has flagged potential violations, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying three provisions of the deal have been breached, though details remain unclear. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue, and the Strait of Hormuz—key to global oil supply—remains largely shut, with only limited tanker movement despite earlier assurances it would reopen.

Oil markets have quickly repriced the risk. Brent crude rose 2% to around $97 after plunging more than 10% in the previous session, highlighting a rapid shift from expectations of de-escalation to renewed uncertainty.

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near $70,981, down 0.5% on the day but still up over 6% on the week. The cryptocurrency had rallied from roughly $67,000 to above $72,000 on ceasefire headlines and has so far managed to stay above the $70,000 threshold despite the latest pullback.

Altcoins are under more pressure. Ether has fallen 2.6% to $2,180, while Solana (SOL) is down 3.1% to $81.96. XRP has slipped 3% to $1.33, and Dogecoin has dropped 3.4% to $0.091. BNB is relatively steady, easing 2.2% to around $600.

Risk assets more broadly are also losing momentum. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.9% after a sharp rally the day before, with declines outpacing advances. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and European markets are pointing to a 0.2% pullback, suggesting the recent global equity rebound may be stalling. U.S. Treasuries were little changed as concerns grew that rising oil prices could feed into inflation.

The macro backdrop remains a constraint. The Federal Reserve continues to signal upside inflation risks even as labor conditions soften, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate outlook. In Japan, wage growth has reached multi-decade highs, strengthening expectations for further policy tightening.

Together, these dynamics point to an environment of tightening financial conditions layered on top of geopolitical instability—limiting conviction across markets.

Against this backdrop, bitcoin’s price action is holding up relatively well. The rally from $67,000 to $72,700 on ceasefire news—and the subsequent consolidation above $70,000—marks its most constructive stretch since the conflict began six weeks ago.

The broader $65,000–$73,000 range that has capped price action since late February remains intact, but bitcoin is now trading closer to the upper bound, signaling a shift in positioning that could prove significant if support continues to hold.