Bitcoin traded near $77,733 during midday Hong Kong hours, stabilizing after a volatile session that briefly saw prices fall to $76,685 and fail to hold above $78,000 during U.S. trading hours, according to CoinDesk data.

The move came amid a liquidation-heavy phase across crypto markets, though derivatives indicators suggest the decline was largely driven by leverage unwinding rather than a broader breakdown in market structure.

Open interest, which measures outstanding leveraged futures positions, remained relatively steady throughout the selloff. Funding rates also stayed muted or turned negative, indicating traders were not excessively positioned long ahead of the move. HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun said this reflects cautious positioning rather than crowded bullish bets.

Sun noted that the lack of heavy leveraged long exposure suggests liquidations were concentrated among short-term traders attempting to catch the bottom, rather than a broad market capitulation. He added that the current price action does not signal a structural downtrend, with support forming in the $75,000–$77,000 range.

Macro conditions, however, continue to dominate sentiment. Rising long-term bond yields, ongoing inflation concerns, and elevated oil prices are keeping investors in a risk-off posture, with limited fresh capital entering speculative markets.

CoinGlass data showed roughly $200 million in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours, split nearly evenly between long and short positions, pointing to a volatile two-way shakeout rather than a one-sided selloff.

Sun pointed to the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rising above 5% as a key pressure point, noting that higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin while tightening overall financial conditions.

Looking forward, he said geopolitical developments could shape the next major move. A de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could ease oil prices and inflation expectations, potentially relieving pressure on yields and supporting a rebound in bitcoin.

Until then, bitcoin is expected to remain range-bound, with the $75,000–$77,000 zone acting as a key short-term support level.