Bitcoin slipped to $76,923 on Tuesday morning, down 2.4% in 24 hours after once again failing to sustain a breakout above $79,400. Multiple rejections around this zone are reinforcing $79,000 as a key resistance level and defining the current trading range.

BTC briefly hit $79,399 on Monday before reversing sharply and extending losses into Asian trading hours. The decline was mirrored across major altcoins, with ether falling 3.7% to $2,290, XRP down 3.2% to $1.39, solana sliding 3.9% to $84.10, and BNB easing 1.8% to $625. Most top-10 tokens finished lower, with only TRON and DOGE managing gains.

Macro conditions added to the risk-off tone as Brent crude extended its rally for a seventh straight session, rising 1% to trade above $109 a barrel. The move reflects ongoing geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz, with stalled negotiations over Iran’s proposal keeping supply risks elevated and sustaining inflation concerns.

Equity markets were relatively calm. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was flat, while Japanese stocks edged higher after the Bank of Japan voted 6–3 to keep policy unchanged. The yen strengthened slightly to around 159 per dollar.

In crypto markets, analysts remain divided on the drivers behind recent price action. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pointed to renewed U.S. retail participation alongside institutional inflows and constrained supply, arguing the broader setup still supports upside. On-chain data from Santiment shows whales have accumulated more than 40,000 BTC over the past two weeks, alongside a rapid shift in sentiment from fear toward FOMO.

However, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju offered a more cautious view, saying the push above $79,000 was largely driven by a derivatives short squeeze rather than sustained spot demand. He warned that once forced covering fades, the market could be vulnerable if fresh buying does not emerge.

Derivatives data supports a cautious interpretation. Funding rates on perpetual futures remain negative on a 7-day basis at -0.13%, according to Coinglass, indicating persistent short positioning and a market still skewed toward bearish hedging—conditions often seen during unstable transition phases.

Despite the debate, corporate accumulation continues. Strategy reportedly purchased $3.9 billion worth of bitcoin in April, its largest monthly acquisition in a year. In Japan, Metaplanet also announced a $50 million bond issuance to fund additional bitcoin purchases, extending its debt-financed treasury expansion.

Attention now shifts to a pivotal macro week. The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with markets increasingly pricing in easing expectations following changes in rate outlook tied to developments around the Justice Department’s closure of its probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Big Tech earnings will also be closely watched, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta reporting midweek, followed by Apple on Thursday. Together, they account for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.

Traders say a dovish Fed signal or strong earnings could help bitcoin break through $80,000. Without such catalysts, repeated failures near $79,000 may continue to cap upside and solidify resistance in the near term.