Bitcoin traded near $76,500 around mid-day in Hong Kong, holding a tight range as activity remained subdued following the U.S. holiday lull.

Market sentiment continues to reflect caution. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 60% probability that BTC will finish the week above $76,000, while maintaining a floor above $74,000. Despite that outlook, conviction remains thin. Singapore-based market maker Enflux said bids are present in the market, but participants are not increasing exposure in meaningful size.

On-chain data from Glassnode points to a similar equilibrium. Its latest weekly report shows buying and selling pressures becoming more balanced, but a drop in overall activity suggests traders are waiting for a clearer macro signal before committing capital.

This indecision is reflected in positioning. Traders are neither aggressively hedging against downside risk nor positioning for a strong upside move, leaving bitcoin rangebound for now.

Enflux noted that bitcoin’s lack of movement stands out given recent macro developments. Even after Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign debt and Walmart warned of margin pressure tied to higher fuel costs and weaker consumer demand, BTC has shown little reaction.

While some see that stability as a sign of resilience, Enflux interprets it as a potential indication of market fatigue.

A key missing driver remains fresh institutional demand. After attracting $2.44 billion in April, inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have slowed. Meanwhile, exchange reserves are sitting near decade lows at roughly 2.3 million BTC, underscoring a tight supply backdrop. However, constrained supply alone has not been enough to lift prices without renewed buying interest.

Attention now shifts to next week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of higher rates for longer, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on bitcoin.

A softer inflation print, by contrast, could revive expectations for monetary easing and potentially draw institutional investors back into the crypto market.