Bitcoin briefly slipped below its 200-week moving average twice in the past two weeks, a relatively rare occurrence that Kraken says has historically aligned with strong long-term buying opportunities.

Bitcoin (BTC), recently trading near $62,708, has been hovering around a level that has often preceded major bullish phases, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo told CoinDesk.

That level is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a widely watched long-term trend indicator that tracks the average price over roughly four years, helping filter out short-term volatility.

Over the last two weeks, BTC dipped below this threshold twice before recovering above it by weekly closes. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $63,900, just above the 200-week SMA of $62,358.

Perfumo noted that closes below this level are uncommon, occurring on only about 10% of trading days since 2017, and have historically marked periods where long-term buyers were significantly rewarded.

He added that “buyers at this level have historically seen median returns of more than 113% after one year and around 313% over two years.”

The median measure reflects the midpoint outcome across historical instances, meaning half of the returns were higher and half were lower, making it less distorted by extreme outliers than a simple average.

The data also suggests relatively modest downside risk for investors entering at these levels.

Perfumo said buyers accumulating below the 200-week SMA have typically broken even within just two days on a median basis, while experiencing an average maximum drawdown of about 9% over the following year.

He cautioned that past performance is not indicative of future results, though historical cycles suggest Bitcoin has often represented strong value when trading near this long-term trend line.