Relief Bounce for Bitcoin Fades as Derivatives Still Flash Bearish Signals

Bitcoin briefly dropped to its lowest level since September 2024 before recovering toward $59,770, while ether extended its slide and another $1 billion in futures positions were liquidated across the crypto market.

The market remains pinned near a key support zone, with bitcoin (BTC) largely flat since midnight UTC after rebounding from Thursday’s low, its weakest level since September 2024.

BTC was last trading near $59,700 after briefly falling to $58,100.

Ether (ETH) failed to recover alongside bitcoin, slipping another 1% and extending its losing streak to three straight sessions, recently hovering around $1,550.

U.S. equity futures also signaled continued weakness, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 1% and S&P 500 futures off 0.4%, as the recent tech-led rally continues to unwind.

One of the few bright spots was Aave (AAVE), which surged as much as 6.8% since midnight, extending gains after reports that Kraken may be considering a 15% stake in the DeFi protocol.

Derivatives positioning

Volatility remains elevated across leveraged markets, with another $1 billion in crypto futures liquidations over the past 24 hours. Long positions took most of the damage, and ETH saw more forced liquidations than BTC over the past 12 hours.

Bitcoin futures open interest rose for a second consecutive session to about 778,000 BTC, up from recent lows near 730,000 BTC. The increase during Thursday’s selloff suggests traders were adding short positions into the decline, positioning for further downside.

Ether futures, by contrast, remain relatively stable, with open interest holding near 14 million ETH since mid-June—an indication traders are not aggressively piling into shorts. XRP shows a similar pattern.

Solana open interest has eased from record highs but remains elevated, keeping volatility risk in play.

Across major tokens, OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta remains negative, signaling continued seller dominance. The pattern reflects heavier use of market sells versus passive bids, with exceptions in BNB, SOL, and TON.

Implied volatility is also climbing. Bitcoin’s BVIV rose to 53%, its highest since early June, while ETH volatility reached 66%. Traditional markets remain comparatively calm, with the VIX at 20% and the MOVE index showing limited stress.

Options markets continue to lean defensive. On Deribit, the one-week BTC skew has moved toward 30%, showing a strong premium for puts over calls. Large flows included demand for $53,000 puts expiring July 10, along with ether risk reversals.

Token talk

Aave outperformed the broader market, while Solana gained about 2% since midnight, rebounding to around $68.95 after briefly dropping to $64.05 on Thursday.

AI-related tokens remained under pressure, with RENDER, NEAR, FET, and TAO each falling 1%–1.5%, extending recent declines.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) dropped 2.6% and is now down 18.5% from its recent peak just 12 days ago.

Ethena (ENA) was again among the weakest performers, falling another 5% and extending its monthly loss to 34%, as its yield strategy continues to suffer from negative funding rates.

  • Related Posts

    Strategy’s STRC Yield Structure Under Spotlight Ahead of Ex-Dividend Date

    Investors are keeping a close watch on Strategy’s upcoming ex-dividend date and the monthly reset of the STRC preferred dividend rate. Strategy (MSTR) perpetual preferred shares, STRC, fell about 3%…

    Continue reading
    After Eight Months on Sidelines, Sharplink Loads Up on Ether

    Sharplink, the second-largest corporate holder of ether, bought 5,000 ETH worth roughly $7.85 million on Thursday, marking its first inflow since October, even as it sits on an estimated $1.8…

    Continue reading