Citigroup has downgraded its crypto outlook again, cutting its Bitcoin price target to $82,000 and Ethereum to $2,240, while eliminating its ETF inflow forecast in a July 2026 research note.

In the July 1 report, Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin estimate from $112,000 to $82,000 and reduced its Ethereum target from $3,175 to $2,240. It also reset its projected net spot crypto ETF inflows over the next year to zero, down from a prior $10 billion assumption, pointing to a structural shift in demand expectations.

The move marks Citi’s second downgrade cycle this year and signals a clear change in stance. The bank no longer treats ETF-driven institutional demand as a reliable support for crypto prices.

The revision comes as Bitcoin trades near $58,650, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours, with daily volumes above $34.6 billion. Citi cited weakening investor appetite, ongoing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs that have turned demand into a headwind, and continued delays in U.S. regulatory progress as key drivers behind the cuts.

The report noted that ETF flows—previously a major price catalyst—have recently turned negative, consistent with year-to-date spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of about $3.3 billion at the time.

Resetting the ETF inflow assumption is the most significant change in Citi’s framework. Earlier models based on $10 billion in expected inflows supported stronger price dynamics, while a zero-inflow baseline materially reduces demand-side support in its valuation approach.

Earlier signs of strain had already emerged, with cumulative ETF outflows approaching $6 billion and challenging the institutional demand narrative that underpinned more bullish forecasts.

On regulation, Citi reiterated concerns first raised in its March 2026 downgrade. Alex Saunders, head of quantitative global macro and DeFi research, attributed the revisions to delays in Washington over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act rather than issues intrinsic to Bitcoin.

The bill remains under close watch by institutional investors but has yet to advance to a Senate cloture vote. Citi continues to view legislative progress as a key variable shaping its outlook.

The latest downgrade extends a steady downward trend. Citi’s Bitcoin target has now dropped from $143,000 earlier in 2026 to $112,000 and then to $82,000, while Ethereum’s has fallen from $4,304 to $3,175 and now to $2,240.

Bear-case scenarios have also been lowered, with Bitcoin’s downside estimate cut to $53,000 from $58,000 and Ethereum’s to $1,094 from $1,198, reflecting weaker macro conditions alongside continued ETF outflows.

The focus now turns to whether the zero-ETF inflow assumption holds or reverses. Citi expects its next major forecast change to be driven by either clear Senate action on digital asset legislation or a sustained shift in ETF flow trends.