After AI-driven gains fueled equities while Bitcoin lagged, investors now expect macro policy and shifting market structure to become the key forces shaping the next phase.

The first half of the year was dominated by the AI trade. The second half may hinge on a tougher question: which companies and assets are actually positioned to benefit from it.

The divide between crypto and equities has been one of the year’s defining market themes. AI enthusiasm pushed technology stocks to record highs, while Bitcoin (BTC) slid roughly 46%, trading near $58,300 on Tuesday.

Analysts say the coming period could bring heightened volatility across both markets as AI trends, central bank policy, and evolving trading structures interact, even if the broader economy remains relatively steady.

Former Credit Suisse global head of portfolio strategy and Kestrel CIO Mark Connors said AI is no longer lifting the entire tech sector uniformly. Instead, it is splitting the market between firms building AI infrastructure and those exposed to disruption from large language models and AI agents.

He said “the market is being split in two,” pointing to recent weakness in companies like Accenture as evidence that investors are reassessing consulting firms as AI automates more knowledge-based work. He also highlighted pressure in software names such as Autodesk and Intuit, suggesting ongoing downside risk for traditional software businesses.

At the same time, he expects macro uncertainty to remain the dominant driver of markets. Rising correlations across equities, bonds, commodities, and crypto suggest investors are increasingly reacting to policy signals rather than individual fundamentals.

He warned that “the rest of the year is going to be messy,” citing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and U.S. Treasury financing as factors likely to keep volatility elevated before conditions eventually improve.

Hyperion Decimus co-founder and portfolio manager Chris Sullivan shared a similar outlook on uncertainty but argued that investors are focusing too heavily on narratives and underweighting market structure.

He said the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with institutional hedging in derivatives markets, has altered Bitcoin’s trading behavior and weakened its traditional macro correlations.

Bitcoin’s recent downturn has also reignited debate over whether its four-year cycle remains intact. While some expected ETFs to smooth volatility and reduce boom-bust dynamics, Sullivan said the current drawdown still aligns with historical cycle behavior.

He added that he is waiting for a clearer bottoming structure before calling the bear phase over, noting that sentiment is nearing levels where “it’s so bearish it’s bullish” from a risk-reward standpoint.

Sullivan expects Bitcoin to bottom in the $54,000–$58,000 range, pointing to improving on-chain signals and deeply negative sentiment as potential ingredients for a longer-term recovery once current uncertainty clears.