Bitcoin’s momentum indicator turns bullish as traders watch critical breakout levels

Bitcoin’s longer-term momentum has received a bullish signal after a refined version of the MACD indicator moved into positive territory. The shift suggests the current recovery may have further upside potential, though BTC must break through several major resistance levels before confirming a sustained uptrend.

Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% this month and is showing signs of a possible move toward the $70,000 range, a level that has repeatedly limited rallies in recent months.

The bullish signal comes from the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, a technical indicator that helps traders measure market momentum and trend strength. A crossover above the zero line typically reflects improving bullish momentum, while a move below zero points to weakening conditions.

The traditional MACD uses 12-day and 26-day moving averages with a 9-day signal line, but these settings can often create short-term noise and false signals. To capture broader trends, many traders use slower versions based on longer periods, such as the 50-day and 100-day moving averages combined with a 9-day signal line.

This extended MACD histogram has now crossed above zero, indicating that bitcoin’s longer-term momentum is turning positive. The signal suggests the latest recovery could continue rather than losing strength quickly. Bitcoin was trading above $64,000 at the time of the analysis.

While no single indicator can fully predict market direction, this longer-term MACD has historically offered reliable signals during major bitcoin cycles. Since BTC declined from its all-time high near $126,000, negative MACD shifts have often appeared before larger sell-offs, while positive crossovers have coincided with strong recovery phases, including the December–January and February–May rallies.

The latest bullish crossover supports the possibility of additional gains, but it does not confirm that a new major bull market has started. Traders are now focused on several key resistance levels that could determine bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Monitor

$65,434 — 50-day moving average

Bitcoin’s first challenge is the 50-day simple moving average, which tracks the average BTC price over the past 50 sessions. This indicator is widely used by traders to evaluate short-term market strength. A move above this level could signal that buyers are gaining momentum.

$67,292 — Mid-June resistance

The next key barrier is the $67,292 level, which marked bitcoin’s mid-June peak. BTC recovered from early June lows near $60,000 before sellers pushed prices lower from this area. Breaking above this resistance would indicate stronger buying pressure and improved market confidence.

$71,147 — 200-day moving average

The most important resistance level remains the 200-day moving average, currently near $71,147. This widely followed indicator helps define the long-term market trend and previously rejected bitcoin’s recovery attempt in early May. A strong breakout above this level would provide stronger evidence of a developing bullish trend.

For now, bitcoin bulls remain encouraged by improving momentum but need confirmation through these technical levels before expecting a larger rally.

$80,000 Options Level Could Drive Volatility

Another area attracting attention is the $80,000 strike price in Deribit’s bitcoin options market. Open interest at this level exceeds $1.21 billion, making it the largest concentration of options exposure on the platform.

If BTC approaches the $80,000 zone, hedging activity and position adjustments from options traders could increase volatility across both spot and futures markets.