Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.158 on July 17, down 1.39%, as derivatives markets tilt bearish ahead of the Van Rossem hard fork. The long-to-short ratio has slipped to 0.58, while open interest has risen 4% to $421 million over the past 48 hours.

Market positioning is increasingly split. Short sellers are building exposure, yet whales are accumulating ADA at the strongest pace since 2023. This clash is creating pressure for a decisive move once momentum breaks in either direction.

Van Rossem Upgrade Set for July 18

The Van Rossem hard fork was approved on July 13 by Stake Pool Operators (SPOs) and Delegated Representatives (DReps), with activation scheduled for July 18 at 21:44:51 UTC at Slot 192,844,800.

Intersect has urged infrastructure providers to update their systems before the fork—a routine step that signals the rollout remains on track without complications.

The upgrade is expected to lower execution costs across the network, making transactions and decentralized applications cheaper to operate. It also prepares the foundation for the Leios upgrade, which aims to significantly expand throughput by the end of 2026.

This broader development roadmap makes the current fork more impactful than a typical upgrade, reinforcing the importance of ongoing whale accumulation.

Key Price Zones: $0.160 and $0.170

CoinGlass liquidation data shows a dense liquidity band between $0.160 and $0.165, just above the current price. A larger cluster sits near $0.167, closely aligned with resistance at $0.1709 on the daily chart.

These levels define the short-term outlook. A drop below $0.160 could trigger long liquidations and open a path toward $0.1465 support. Conversely, a break above $0.170 may force short covering, accelerating upward momentum as the fork goes live.

On the 4-hour chart, ADA has broken above a descending trendline from its early-July peak near $0.195, but the move has yet to translate into sustained upside.

The RSI stands at 46.92, below its moving average of 50.95, indicating a neutral-to-bearish bias. With no oversold signal, the market lacks a strong technical floor and appears to be waiting for a catalyst.

Outlook and Market Implications

Cardano’s previous major upgrade, the Vasil hard fork in September 2022, improved smart contract efficiency and network performance.

Van Rossem, however, focuses on reducing costs and enabling future scalability via Leios. The governance framework behind it—now coordinated through Intersect with formal SPO and DRep participation—reflects a more mature and transparent process than earlier upgrades.

The key question is whether this improved structure and technical progress will drive sustained buying after activation, or if short sellers will use any rally to expand bearish positions.

The $0.167 liquidity cluster remains the most important signal. A daily close above this level would indicate bullish continuation. Historically, in major crypto events, the side controlling spot supply tends to prevail, gradually outweighing derivatives positioning.