Oil prices moved sharply higher Monday after renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes increased concerns over global crude supplies. President Donald Trump also declared another victory in the conflict, adding to the geopolitical backdrop facing markets.

Markets Raise Rate-Hike Bets

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh traveled together to the G20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, over the weekend, potentially highlighting a degree of coordination between Treasury and the central bank.

The Treasury has spent recent weeks trying to push long-term borrowing costs lower through public comments. Warsh took a different tone Friday, saying the Fed still needed to make progress on inflation. His remarks prompted Treasury yields to rise across the curve.

The 30-year Treasury yield added 5.2 basis points Monday to reach 5.26%, while the 10-year yield climbed 4.1 basis points to 4.763%, its highest level in three years.

Expectations for a near-term rate increase also strengthened. CME FedWatch showed a 64% probability of a Fed move at the September meeting, compared with 57% on Friday and around 40% before Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole.

Looking toward December 2026, markets were pricing in roughly a 90% chance of at least one rate increase. The probability of cumulative hikes totaling 75 basis points was close to 10%.

Iran Conflict Pushes Crude Higher

Oil prices accelerated following overnight strikes involving Iran. Trump said Monday that Iran was an “officially failed nation,” citing its military capabilities and economic and political conditions.

Brent crude jumped 5.9% to $91.18 per barrel, while WTI advanced 3.7% to $86.47. Front-month WTI futures were also more than 3% higher at around $86.63.

The latest military escalation revived concerns about tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, adding another source of support for crude prices.

Bitcoin showed a more muted reaction, trading near $78,400 and remaining about 1% higher compared with midnight levels.

Strategy Returns to BTC Purchases

Strategy resumed its bitcoin accumulation after last buying in late June. The company purchased 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, paying an average of $80,318 per coin.

The acquisition was supported by $602.8 million in proceeds from common-stock sales. Strategy also used $151.8 million for STRC preferred-stock buybacks and directed part of the remaining funds toward its cash reserves.

The latest purchase brings Strategy’s bitcoin holdings to 845,050 BTC. The company has spent about $63.73 billion acquiring the coins, resulting in an average purchase price of $75,412 per BTC.

MSTR shares rose 1.65% in premarket trading as bitcoin held near $78,400.

Ether Records Golden Cross

Ether’s daily chart has produced a golden cross, a technical pattern that traders commonly associate with strengthening long-term momentum.

The formation occurs when the 50-day simple moving average moves above the 200-day average. While the signal can indicate a shift toward bullish momentum, it does not ensure that the asset will continue to appreciate.

BUIDL Reclaims Top Tokenized Treasury Position

BlackRock’s BUIDL has regained the lead among tokenized U.S. Treasury funds with around $2.8 billion in assets, according to Token Terminal. Circle’s USYC is at approximately the same level, making the race effectively even after rounding.

Tokenized Treasury products invest in short-term U.S. government securities and issue blockchain-based tokens representing ownership. The structure enables crypto companies to maintain assets on-chain while earning Treasury yields. Securitize handles tokenization and transfer-agent services for BUIDL.

BUIDL crossed $3 billion in assets in early 2025 before experiencing a decline of more than $1 billion. Its assets subsequently recovered, fell near $1.5 billion around mid-2026 and then increased through August.

USYC followed a steadier upward path and moved ahead of BUIDL earlier this year.

The overall tokenized Treasury market has expanded more than 15,000% since 2024 and has remained near $15 billion despite recent weakness in crypto markets. Ondo’s USDY and Franklin Templeton’s iBENJI follow with approximately $2.1 billion and $1.7 billion.

Yen Weakness Adds to Risk Pressure

Bessent said the yen’s recent decline remained manageable and did not require another coordinated intervention by the U.S. and Japan.

He had previously cautioned that disorderly yen trading could contribute to higher U.S. interest rates.

The Japanese currency is frequently used to finance investments in U.S. stocks and Treasury securities. A sharp yen move can therefore influence bond yields and financial conditions, potentially affecting bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

Bitcoin traded below $78,000 during Asian hours, down less than 1% over 24 hours but still roughly 1% higher on the week.

Solana and Dogecoin dropped around 3%, while Hyperliquid and XRP also declined. Ether, BNB, Zcash and Tron were within about 2% of unchanged.

Solana remained up approximately 8% over seven days, while Dogecoin had fallen around 10%.

The yen moved through 160 per dollar in Tokyo, bringing it closer to levels that could trigger renewed intervention concerns. Strategists are watching 161 as a potential initial threshold, followed by the 162-163 region.

The dollar’s broad advance Friday reflected stronger expectations for U.S. rates after Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments. The resulting shift in rate pricing had previously contributed to institutional outflows from bitcoin ETFs during May and June.

With August ending Monday, the final ETF flow figures will be closely watched to determine whether bitcoin’s recent eight-day inflow streak remained intact despite the renewed expectations for higher interest rates.