Bitcoin is holding near $78,000 despite a fresh risk-off move triggered by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. The military escalation pushed oil prices higher and sent several equity markets lower, but BTC has remained relatively resilient.

Bitcoin has climbed more than 24% during August, putting it on track for its strongest monthly performance since 2017 and its biggest one-month gain since November 2024. Over the past day, BTC gained around 0.5%, while the CoinDesk 20 index declined roughly 0.75%.

Asian equities were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was almost unchanged and South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.46%. European and U.S. stock futures were pointing lower.

Crude oil saw the sharpest reaction. Brent crude moved above $90 a barrel after U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers, followed by Iranian attacks on military bases. Gold, meanwhile, eased to around $4,440 an ounce.

The rise in energy prices is adding another layer to inflation concerns after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole pushed the implied probability of a September rate hike to 58%.

Derivatives Activity Picks Up

Crypto derivatives markets showed a mix of increased activity and selective leverage.

Volume jumps while open interest remains stable:
Twenty-four-hour crypto trading volume more than doubled to approximately $183 billion, while aggregate open interest remained near $136 billion. The balanced taker ratio between longs and shorts suggests the surge was driven mainly by greater turnover rather than a major build-up of fresh positions.

Liquidations reach $431 million:
Total liquidations across the market reached roughly $431 million. Ether accounted for about $130 million, while bitcoin saw approximately $100 million in liquidations. Solana, XRP and Zcash were also among the assets affected.

Monero’s leveraged rally looks crowded:
XMR futures open interest rose 15% to roughly 637,000 tokens, its highest level since February 2024, according to CoinGlass. Monero’s spot price also jumped around 12% over 24 hours.

The rise in both price and OI suggests traders are adding leveraged long exposure. However, annualized perpetual funding rates approaching 100% point to increasingly crowded positioning. If momentum fades, expensive funding and heavy leverage could accelerate a long-position unwind.

Uniswap shows stronger positioning:
UNI futures open interest increased 12% as the token gained about 5%. The setup is similar to Monero, but UNI’s perpetual funding rate remains near 2%, indicating considerably less crowded leverage.

ZEC, SHIB and DOGE see OI fall:
Open interest declined most sharply in these three assets, although the associated capital outflows remained relatively limited.

BTC and ETH positioning remains moderate:
Bitcoin futures OI is still below 700,000 BTC, compared with a peak of roughly 801,000 recorded June 4. Ether’s derivatives positioning has followed a similar pattern.

CVD points to widespread selling:
The 24-hour cumulative volume delta remains negative across most major cryptocurrencies, showing that sellers are using aggressive market orders. XMR and UNI are the exceptions, with both maintaining positive CVD readings.

Implied volatility declines:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has slipped below 40% after briefly approaching 50% earlier in August. The decline indicates that traders are once again expecting relatively calmer conditions. Ether’s volatility measure has also moved lower.

Options indicate some downside hedging:
Bitcoin puts at the $70,000, $73,000 and $74,000 strikes ranked among the most active Deribit contracts over the past 24 hours. The activity suggests some traders are protecting against a potential BTC decline. Ether options show a comparable pattern.

Token Market Movers

Uniswap led major altcoins with a 6.9% gain over 24 hours. The move came as on-chain data showed more than $1.5 billion in tokenized stock trades had been processed through Uniswap on Robinhood Chain.

PancakeSwap also rose 6.9%, although no clear catalyst was identified. Dash gained 3.4%, Bitcoin Cash added 1.3% and bitcoin advanced about 0.7%.

Prom was the biggest decliner, dropping 18% as traders locked in profits after its recent speculative rally. Despite the sharp daily fall, PROM remained more than 100% higher over seven days.

Bitcoin’s relative stability stands out against the latest geopolitical and macro pressures. With BTC up more than 24% for August, the cryptocurrency remains on course for one of its strongest monthly performances in years, although rate expectations, oil prices and derivatives positioning remain important risks for the rally.