The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% when its two-day meeting wraps up on Wednesday, October 28. Policymakers face a difficult balance between inflation that remains elevated and a labor market showing signs of slowing, with the U.S. midterm elections only six days away. Polymarket traders currently place the odds of a rate hold at 94.9% ahead of the 2 p.m. ET announcement.

Although the October decision is largely priced in, the possibility of a December rate increase remains a major concern for investors. Prediction markets put the probability of another hike next month at 79%, shifting attention toward Chair Kevin Warsh’s scheduled 2:30 p.m. press conference.

Bitcoin is trading near $81,430, up 1.9% over the past 24 hours.

Polymarket’s October Fed decision contract has generated $86 million in betting volume. The most likely path across the next three meetings, with a 59% probability, is for the Fed to hold rates in October, raise them in December, and keep them unchanged in January. The December estimate combines contracts covering rate increases of 25 and 50 basis points.

Bond investors are also positioning for the possibility of tighter monetary policy. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.68% on Monday, 68 basis points above the top of the Fed’s target range, compared with 4.17% in late August. The widening gap indicates that markets are factoring in the possibility of additional rate increases.

What Are Traders Expecting From Warsh?

Traders largely anticipate a hawkish hold, with the Fed maintaining its current rate while avoiding any commitment to suspend future increases.

The economic backdrop remains mixed. U.S. consumer inflation accelerated to 3.7% annually in September, up from 3.4% in August, while Brent crude prices remained near $111 per barrel. In contrast, employers added just 29,000 jobs during September, and unemployment climbed to 4.2%.

On September 16, the Fed approved a 25-basis-point increase in a unanimous 12–0 vote. The accompanying statement stressed that inflation was still too high and reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to price stability. Warsh has largely refrained from providing explicit forward guidance since becoming chair, emphasizing that he does not “prejudge meetings.”

Investors will pay close attention to any dissenting votes. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari previously favored a rate increase in July, while other policymakers supported leaving rates unchanged.

Polymarket currently assigns the highest probability, 33.5%, to two dissenting votes. Three dissents carry a 28% probability, while a unanimous decision stands at 23%. According to Matt Weller of FOREX.com, two or more dissents would represent a “true hawkish hold.” A decision without dissent could weaken expectations of a December hike.

The upcoming midterm elections add a political dimension to the meeting. SMBC chief economist Joseph LaVorgna said ahead of the decision that the Fed would not want to antagonize the White House just six days before the election.

The most likely outcome is an unchanged policy rate, two hawkish dissents, and a statement reiterating concerns about inflation. Warsh could also leave the door open to a December increase without explicitly endorsing one. Such an outcome would likely keep market-implied odds of a hike within the current 73%–79% range.

A dovish surprise remains the main alternative. If the decision receives unanimous support or Warsh suggests that 10-year Treasury yields near 5% are already sufficiently restrictive, traders may lower their expectations for additional tightening.

What Does the Fed Decision Mean for Crypto?

Bitcoin’s performance following Fed decisions this year suggests that the central bank’s accompanying message could have a greater impact on the market than the rate announcement itself.

Bitcoin fell within 24 hours of three of the five rate holds recorded in 2026. Across all five meetings, its average decline was 2.6%, with the sharpest losses occurring after the January and June decisions, when BTC dropped 6.2% and 5.1%, respectively.

The September 16 rate increase produced a different reaction. Bitcoin rose 1.1% over the following day and gained 11.3% during the next week as uncertainty surrounding the policy decision faded.

Options markets are currently signaling relatively moderate expectations for volatility. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options, stood at 37.3 on Wednesday and has remained between approximately 37 and 39 over the past two weeks.

However, subdued volatility expectations do not rule out a sharp price movement if Warsh delivers a surprise.

A hawkish message pointing toward a December rate increase could push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, potentially weighing on Bitcoin. A more dovish stance could ease financial conditions and support BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Several additional events could influence prices over the coming days. September’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report and third-quarter GDP figures are scheduled for Thursday. Deribit’s monthly options expiry follows on Friday, while the U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Reclaim $83,624 After the Fed?

Bitcoin remains above its key moving averages but has yet to recover its October opening price. The Fed’s policy guidance could determine whether the current recovery gains momentum or gives way to another decline.

BTC is trading around $81,430 on Binance, above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $80,829 and its 200-day EMA at $76,442. These indicators could provide support if selling pressure returns.

Resistance: $83,624, Bitcoin’s October opening level. A sustained close above this price would bring its monthly performance back into positive territory.

Support: $79,221, the October 24 low. Buyers have defended this level through three separate declines this week, making it an important area to watch.

If Warsh adopts a softer tone, Bitcoin could attempt to break above $83,624. Conversely, stronger signals of further monetary tightening could push BTC below its 50-day EMA and expose the $79,221 support level to another test.