Bitcoin and the S&P 500 could extend their gains in the year following the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, based on historical performance. However, Bitcoin’s previous post-election rallies may have reflected its four-year halving cycle rather than changes in the political landscape.

Since Bitcoin was introduced in 2009, it has experienced four U.S. midterm election cycles. Excluding 2010, when the cryptocurrency market was still in its early stages, Bitcoin delivered an average return of 53.7% in the 12 months after the other three elections, according to CoinDesk’s analysis.

The calculation compares Bitcoin’s daily closing price at 00:00 UTC on Election Day with its closing price on the same date a year later.

Bitcoin surged 1,579% in the year after the 2010 midterms. However, the market was extremely small at the time, making that performance an unreliable indicator of how Bitcoin might behave under current market conditions.

If previous trends continue, Bitcoin’s recent trading range around $80,000 could be followed by another upward move after the upcoming election. BTC has already gained more than 35% since falling below $60,000 in June. Some analysts believe the cryptocurrency could be approaching another bullish phase, potentially encouraging investors to accumulate and hold.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle offers another explanation

The limited historical data makes it difficult to conclude that U.S. midterm elections directly influence Bitcoin prices. Its recurring four-year market cycle may better explain the rallies observed after previous elections.

This cycle is closely associated with Bitcoin’s mining reward halving, a programmed event that occurs approximately every four years and reduces the number of new BTC awarded to miners per block by 50%.

Historically, Bitcoin has rallied strongly after each of its four completed halvings, reached a peak roughly 12 to 18 months later and then entered a bear market.

Those downturns coincided with U.S. midterm election years in 2014, 2018 and 2022, as well as 2026. This overlap suggests that earlier post-election recoveries may have marked the beginning of new Bitcoin market cycles rather than resulted directly from political developments.

S&P 500 history points to stronger post-election returns

The S&P 500 offers a longer historical record, and its performance also indicates that the year after midterm elections has generally been favorable for investors.

According to Hartford Funds, the index has averaged a 15.17% gain in the 12 months following U.S. midterm elections since 1950. By comparison, its average return during other years was 7.30%.

This pattern suggests that U.S. equities have historically performed better during post-election periods. A sustained stock market rally could also support Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets, although their performance is not guaranteed to follow the same trajectory.

Political shifts could influence market sentiment

The November 2026 elections could affect President Donald Trump’s ability to advance his agenda during the final two years of his current White House term.

If Democrats win control of one or both chambers of Congress, disputes over the growing federal debt could intensify. Negotiations over the unresolved debt limit could become more complicated, while Trump’s proposed $350 billion in mandatory defense funding could encounter resistance, according to Brookings.

Democratic lawmakers could also use legislative measures and congressional oversight to challenge funding for further military escalation in the Middle East.

Cryptocurrency regulation could become another source of political tension. Democratic committee chairs may investigate potential conflicts of interest involving Trump’s personal crypto earnings and his family’s business ventures. Lawmakers have already sent oversight letters concerning the president’s cryptocurrency connections.

Trump’s memecoin, launched in January 2025, has also faced scrutiny following substantial losses among retail investors.

However, the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v. Slaughter left much of the financial regulatory system under presidential control. This could limit Congress’s ability to prevent the administration from pursuing its crypto-friendly policies.

Markets have largely priced in the possibility of divided government, with Democrats expected to regain control of at least one chamber of Congress.

Overall, historical performance offers a potentially positive outlook for Bitcoin and the S&P 500 after the midterms. Whether that pattern repeats will depend on political developments, broader economic conditions and Bitcoin’s market cycle, rather than election history alone.