A Bitcoin whale has transferred 438.37 BTC, worth around $35.38 million, to Coinbase Prime, drawing attention to a potential $15 million loss on the position. Arkham Intelligence tracked the transaction on October 28, approximately 16 months after the wallet withdrew 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody at an average price of $105,271.

The transfer comes as Bitcoin struggles to deliver the strong October performance investors had anticipated. BTC is trading near $81,445, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours but down 2.5% since the start of the month. With only three days remaining, Bitcoin needs to recover its monthly opening price to avoid closing October in the red.

The whale’s activity has renewed questions about whether major holders are preparing to sell and which upcoming market events could influence Bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin News: Are Whales Preparing to Sell?

The latest transaction shows that a large Bitcoin holder has moved funds to an exchange, although broader market data does not yet confirm a widespread selling trend.

The wallet, identified as bc1q9kaa…l77q, had remained inactive since June 24, 2025, when it received 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody. At 00:48 UTC on October 28, it sent 438.37 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit address, leaving 177.03 BTC in the original wallet, according to blockchain records.

Bitcoin transfers to exchanges are often interpreted as a possible precursor to selling because the assets become easier to trade. However, the wallet owner has not explained the transaction, and Coinbase Prime also provides institutional services for lending and hedging. The deposit alone does not establish that a sale has taken place.

Exchange-wide data offered a different signal on October 27. Preliminary figures from CryptoQuant showed net outflows of 12,570 BTC, valued at approximately $1.01 billion. This followed net inflows of more than 7,000 BTC a day earlier.

Analyst Darkfost also reported that Binance’s 30-day average of whale deposits had fallen from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion. Retail deposits, meanwhile, have been increasing since September.

These contrasting movements indicate that large-holder activity remains mixed, rather than pointing to a clear wave of Bitcoin selling.

Bitcoin Must Reclaim $83,624 to End October in Positive Territory

Bitcoin’s performance this month has fallen short of expectations, putting its historical October strength at risk.

BTC started October at $83,624 on Binance and climbed to $87,220 on October 2. The rally subsequently lost momentum, sending the price down to $79,221 on October 24.

To finish the month with a gain, Bitcoin must close above $83,624. From its current price of $81,445, this would require a recovery of approximately 2.7%.

If BTC fails to reclaim that level, 2026 would mark its first consecutive pair of losing Octobers in more than a decade. October 2025 ended 3.9% lower on Binance, while the only other negative October performances since 2013 occurred in 2014 and 2018.

The remaining trading sessions could therefore determine whether Bitcoin stages a late recovery or extends its monthly decline.

Upcoming Events That Could Drive Bitcoin’s Next Move

Several economic announcements and market events are approaching, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected to be the immediate focus.

– October 28 — Fed rate decision: The policy statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. After September’s 25-basis-point increase to 3.75%–4.00%, Polymarket traders assign a 95% probability to the Fed keeping rates unchanged.

– October 29 — PCE inflation and earnings: September’s personal consumption expenditures inflation report follows a consumer price index reading of 3.7% year over year. Coinbase and Strategy are also expected to publish their third-quarter earnings after the U.S. market closes.

– October 30 — Bitcoin options expiry: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options are scheduled to settle at 08:00 UTC. Open interest for the expiry stands at 135,452 BTC, worth approximately $11.04 billion and representing 34.4% of the platform’s total open interest. The put-call ratio is 0.53, while the max-pain level is $78,000.

– November 3 — U.S. midterm elections: The results could affect the direction of cryptocurrency legislation and the regulatory environment.

– December 9 — Next Fed meeting: Markets are already pricing in the possibility of another rate increase, with Polymarket assigning a 76.5% probability to a December hike.

Together, these developments could influence market sentiment, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s price volatility through the end of the year.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Return to $83,624?

Bitcoin remains above its 50-day exponential moving average but has yet to recover its October opening price. Its near-term direction will depend on whether buyers can generate enough momentum to challenge resistance.

BTC is trading slightly above its 50-day EMA at $80,833 after rebounding from the October 24 low of $79,221. The 200-day EMA stands at $76,443, providing another technical reference if selling pressure returns.

Resistance at $83,624: Bitcoin’s monthly opening price is the key level to watch. A sustained move above it would put BTC on course to finish October in positive territory.

Additional resistance at $84,898: This marks the October 21 high, which preceded the recent decline.

Support at $79,221: The October 24 low remains a critical support zone after holding through three subsequent price dips during the week.

A sustained break above $83,624 could strengthen Bitcoin’s recovery prospects. However, a drop below $79,221 would weaken the technical outlook and increase the possibility of further losses.