Howard Lutnick Rejects Recession Worries as Bitcoin Drops Toward $80K

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is brushing off fears of a U.S. recession, arguing that Trump’s trade policies will fuel economic expansion rather than hinder growth. However, the crypto market is reacting with skepticism as Bitcoin and other digital assets see sharp declines.

During an appearance on Meet the Press on Sunday, Lutnick dismissed concerns raised by Wall Street analysts who warn that tariffs and protectionist policies could slow down the economy.

“Absolutely not,” he said when asked if a recession is on the horizon. “These are the same voices who doubted Trump’s ability to lead. The American economy is strong, and it’s going to get stronger under his leadership.”

A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, often triggered by external shocks or internal financial instability.

Lutnick took to social media to double down on his claims, framing Trump’s economic strategy as a fight for America’s financial security:

“The President is committed to keeping America strong. Tariffs are not just about trade—they are about securing our economy. Canada and Mexico must help stop fentanyl, and China must stop unfair market practices. We will not back down.”

Trade Policy: A Growth Engine or a Risk Factor?

Lutnick insists that Trump’s aggressive trade stance will unlock $1.3 trillion in new investments and drive economic expansion by forcing other nations to open their markets to American goods.

“We are going to see historic growth in the next two years,” he stated, rejecting warnings from major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that tariffs could trigger a slowdown. “America is poised for an economic boom, and the numbers will prove it.”

While acknowledging that tariffs could raise prices on some imports, Lutnick argued that balancing the budget would lower borrowing costs and benefit American consumers in the long run.

“When you rein in government spending, interest rates drop. Mortgage rates come down, and the cost of living becomes more manageable,” he said.

Crypto Markets React with Uncertainty

Despite Lutnick’s confidence, cryptocurrency markets tell a different story. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% on Sunday, sinking to $80,000 and inching closer to its 2025 low of $78,000.

Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) also saw losses, while meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) dropped nearly 12%.

On Polymarket, traders are hedging against economic uncertainty. The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has surged to 41%, a 16% increase in recent weeks.

Economic Indicators Paint a Mixed Picture

The latest jobs report showed that 151,000 jobs were added in February, aligning with expectations. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and January’s job gains were revised downward, according to CoinDesk.

Public sector layoffs linked to the White House’s cost-cutting measures could push unemployment figures higher in the coming months.

Although the labor market remains relatively strong, signs of slowing growth are beginning to emerge. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts a -2.8% GDP growth rate for Q1, adding to concerns about a potential downturn.

However, another Polymarket contract suggests only a 3% chance of a recession occurring before May, indicating that while uncertainty looms, a full-blown economic contraction is not yet a foregone conclusion.