Polymarket Bets on U.S. Strike Against Iran Decline Amid Reports of Possible Trump-Led Talks

Bets on a near-term U.S. military strike against Iran have pulled back significantly, as traders weigh fresh signals of potential diplomacy from former President Donald Trump’s camp.

On Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, the probability of a U.S. strike on Iran by June 30 has dropped to 46%, retreating sharply from an overnight high of 66.9%. The shift follows a report from Axios suggesting U.S. officials are exploring talks with Iran’s leadership.

According to Axios, discussions are underway for a potential meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The talks could center around a renewed nuclear agreement and efforts to de-escalate the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Despite the diplomatic signals, sentiment remains divided. One Polymarket user posted, “Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern warfare,” calling for military action instead of negotiations.

The geopolitical tensions escalated dramatically last Friday, when Israel launched coordinated airstrikes and drone attacks on multiple Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Tehran retaliated, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict.

Markets initially recoiled, with Bitcoin (BTC) plunging to $102,750 amid a rush to safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen, while U.S. equities slumped. BTC has since rebounded to $106,700, though S&P 500 futures remain 0.7% lower at press time, reflecting lingering caution.

The Trump team has yet to officially comment on the Axios report. However, in a late-Monday post on Truth Social, Trump reiterated that Iran must not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon and called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran.