Arthur Hayes Liquidates Crypto Holdings, Citing Bearish Outlook Amid Tariffs and Economic Weakness

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has sold over $13 million worth of crypto assets, warning of a bearish shift in market conditions driven by U.S. economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions.

According to on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence, Hayes offloaded significant amounts of ether (ETH), Ethena (ENA), and meme coin PEPE, reallocating most of the proceeds into the USDC stablecoin. The address linked to Hayes now holds more than 80% of its $27.9 million balance in USDC.

Breakdown of the sales includes:

• 2,373 ETH worth approximately $8.32 million
• 7.76 million ENA valued at $4.62 million
• 38.86 billion PEPE sold for about $414,700

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Hayes appeared to confirm the wallet activity and outlined his bearish thesis. He cited the economic impact of U.S. tariffs introduced under President Donald Trump—some already active as of August 1, with additional rounds due August 7—as a key concern. Combined with a weaker-than-expected July jobs report, Hayes argued the current macro backdrop lacks sufficient credit expansion to drive nominal GDP growth.

“US Tariff bill coming due in Q3… at least the market believes that after the NFP print. No major economy is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP. So $BTC tests $100K, $ETH tests $3K,” Hayes wrote.

He also teased a deeper explanation at his upcoming keynote at WebX Asia in Tokyo on August 25.

Despite trimming exposure, Hayes’ longer-term view may remain bullish. In a previous post, he projected bitcoin would reach $250,000 and ether $10,000 by year-end.

Markets Reflect Mounting Pressure

The broader crypto market has not been immune to macro stress. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell over 7.5% this past week, as rate cut optimism cooled. Bitcoin outperformed, losing 3.9% and trading near $113,500, while ETH slid 6.5% to around $3,500.

Though expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts dipped earlier in the week, weak labor market data revived speculation by Friday. Prediction market platform Polymarket now shows a 70% probability of a rate cut in September.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risk remains elevated. Following aggressive rhetoric from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, President Trump stated that he had ordered two U.S. nuclear submarines to reposition to “appropriate regions,” heightening fears of escalation with Moscow.

With macro uncertainty rising and crypto markets under pressure, Hayes’ move to stablecoins reflects growing caution among seasoned traders—though his long-term targets suggest he may be preparing for a larger move ahead.